Scorching summer, air conditioning market is also restless, and both factory delivery and market terminal are all in a hot scene.
According to ChinaIOL, the production of domestic air conditioner is 14,399,200 in April of 2017, a 23.24% increase year-on-year. And the sale of domestic air conditioner is 14,634,100, a 32.34% increase year-on-year. Among the total sale, the number of domestic sale is 7,851,200, a 69.85% increase year-on-year. The number of export is 7,308,300, increased by 5.39% compared with last year.
2015-2017 Domestic sale of air conditioning industry in April (ten thousand)
The voice of promotion in air conditioner terminal market has been louder and louder since March. In April, various promotional activities all start. For example, Aux’s “Red April”, Media’s 49th anniversary air conditioner promotion, Sunning’s “4.18 Purchase in Advance”, Gome’s 6th anniversary celebration party, JD’s air conditioner “Super Category Day”, Tmall&Sunning’s promotion. Meanwhile, the promotion war of different merchants comes one after another, which accelerates the rotation of the whole air conditioner market’s sale chain. As a result, shipment is increasing only.
Analyzing the increasing points of demand, it is not hard for us to find out there are three factors. First of all, with the constant increase of rural consumers’ income, the demand for home appliances is also growing continually. Secondly, the replacement period of air conditioner in second-tier and third-tier cities is approaching, which promotes the improvement of demand to a greater degree. Thirdly, home appliance market is blown by the warm wind of real estate market at the end of 2016, and now it enters the climax of decoration. The synchronous increase is caused by these three factors together.
As for production scheduling, we can notice that the increase speed of it is up to 60% in May after the short adjustment in April. It can be expected that the peak of domestic sale will appear in May and June again.
After entering 2017, the world economy is improving apparently, and global trade starts to recover gradually. The US economy has continued to improve, and meanwhile, the interest rate is lifted, but the US dollar has never been strong. The European economy fluctuates but recovers, and the pressure of deflation has been eliminated. The pressure of Japan’s deflation is relieved, and it maintains easy monetary policy. The foreign trade of emerging markets and countries recovers substantially, and deflation continues to decrease, but divergence of economic trends still exists. On the whole, the recovery of overseas demand will benefit the improvement of China’s export.
The export of China’s air conditioner has always taken its cheap price as major competitive advantage, but with the increase of trade friction, export has also been full of challenge. Besides, the external factors, such as fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, raise of US interest rate, and short supply of emerging market, will whittle down the export of air conditioner enterprise in varying degree. Therefore, from the data of January to April in 2017, we can conclude that the export of China’s domestic air conditioner continues its growing trend in 2016. However, influenced by global macroeconomic situation and the price rise of domestic air conditioning raw material, we expect that the growth range of China’s domestic air conditioner export will be narrowed in 2017.